This article is from Power Play, a twice-weekly newsletter rounding up the latest City Hall and local politics gossip. To sign up, visit The Standard’s newsletter page.
Supervisor Jackie Fielder’s acute health crisis is a personal tragedy for a young politician at the inception of her career. If she follows through on her stated intentions to resign, it would also be a loss for progressive Democrats, winnowing a slender bloc on the Board of Supervisors into irrelevance.
Fielder’s office Sunday evening released a statement saying she is taking a medical leave of absence, as she “is currently navigating a mental health condition and needs time and space to recover before making any major decisions.”
Publicly, Democrats are wishing Fielder a speedy recovery, with some hoping she reverses her intent — expressed to multiple people on Friday — to step down. Privately, moderate operatives are already gaming out strategies if she follows through and leaves office.
Moderate Democrats are already floating potential candidates for Mayor Daniel Lurie to appoint to replace Fielder. Names Power Play reporters are hearing include Moises Garcia, Lurie’s community liaison and former LGBTQ campaign outreach director, Planning Commission member Lydia So, and Joshua Arce, a program manager with the Northern California District Council of Laborers who once ran (opens in new tab) for District 9 supervisor.
As for the progressives, Jim Ross, a decades-long political consultant who ran Gavin Newsom’s first mayoral campaign, said the city’s lefties are undoubtedly considering committing more resources to Natalie Gee’s race in District 4, the Sunset and Parkside, to unseat Lurie’s recent appointment, Alan Wong.
“That was a very important race for progressives before this – now it’s almost existential,” Ross said.
The balance of power in San Francisco is at stake, imperiling progressive priorities: stalling layoffs, defeating charter reform, and softening the impacts of market-rate development, like evictions.
Fielder’s potential absence also takes away one of the most outspoken voices against President Donald Trump and his aggressive immigration policies, as others in the city, like Lurie, have taken a more cautious approach to the White House.
The 11-member Board of Supervisors often serves as a counterweight to any sitting mayor, and in London Breed’s time, the body famously fought against her policy choices. Lurie has enjoyed more unanimity thanks to a six-member majority of mayor-aligned moderate Democrats. Supervisor Myrna Melgar sometimes serves as a seventh vote Lurie can court.
“It actually hurts my stomach thinking about it,” said Melgar about the news regarding Fielder. “I really hope she doesn’t resign.”
While the progressive bloc of four (and sometimes five) supervisors cannot, on its own, defeat Lurie’s preferred legislation, progressives wield enough power to negotiate on key issues, like when Supervisor Connie Chan successfully lowered the amount of homelessness funding Lurie wanted to redirect from Proposition C to shelters, away from housing, to $34 million (opens in new tab), when Lurie wanted $88 million.
But if Lurie could appoint a replacement for Fielder, the game changes. Seven reliable votes are much closer to an eight-vote supermajority, which is the number needed to override any mayoral veto of board legislation. San Francisco State University professor Jason McDaniel said the scenario could “cement a board that is much more favorable to Lurie’s agenda.”
A weakened progressive flank could unlock multiple avenues for Lurie and his allies, including:
San Francisco’s budget. Last year, Fielder was the lone dissenting vote against Lurie’s budget. One less progressive would make it tougher for Chan to stop the most severe Lurie austerity measures, like layoffs.OpenGov. Fielder was set to hold a hearing investigating Lurie’s OpenGov contract, which The Standard found had troubling ties to the nonprofit foundation Lurie founded, Tipping Point Community. If Fielder departs, the pressure may be off Lurie’s office. Charter reform. Lurie has already submitted paperwork to begin gathering signatures for his grand structural overhauls of city law, with progressive-aligned labor fiercely against ballot initiative regions. Fielder’s position as supervisor would give her a perch to speak out against them.The Great Highway. Wong, a Lurie appointee, was a man alone when he tried to get a Great Highway measure on the June ballot, lacking his colleagues’ support. A District 9 appointee could help him get it on the November ballot, and helping Wong is a Lurie priority.
Nearing a Board of Supervisors supermajority, and capturing the mayor’s office, has been a pie-in-the-sky dream of moderate Democrats since 1996, when voters approved the switch from citywide to district elections, which saw the rise of progressives like Aaron Peskin, political observers told Power Play.
If Fielder steps down, which is by no means guaranteed, moderates would be closer to that goal than they have been in a quarter century, which would fuel energy to spend on contested races for the Board of Supervisors this November — like District 10, in the southeast, with their preferred candidate of Theo Ellington and District 8, in the Castro and Noe Valley, where they hope Manny Yekutiel takes the win.
“If they have a near veto-proof majority, they can fundamentally change San Francisco,” Ross said of moderates. “This is their chance, you gotta go all in, you’ve gotta spend every last dollar, do everything you can.”
Peskin hoped moderates and progressives alike would pause and respect the health of a young politician, just 31, who has so much left to offer.
“That’s a moment when good people don’t use it as a political opportunity. It’s a time when they take care of one another,” Peskin said. “People who want to use it as a political opportunity should be ashamed.” — J.F.R., G.G. and H.L.
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Saikat Chakrabarti, Scott Wiener and Connie Chan attend a forum. | Source: Scott Strazzante/SF Chronicle/Getty Images
NEW NUMBERS: We’re finally getting a look at polling in that heated race to succeed retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi.
An internal memo (opens in new tab) from Saikat Chakrabarti’s campaign, shared exclusively with Power Play, shows the former congressional staffer and tech engineer in second place, with 20%. He trails state Sen. Scott Wiener, who is favored by 32% of voters. Supervisor Chan follows at 17%. About 13% of voters support other candidates, and 18% are undecided.
The poll, conducted this month by Data for Progress, surveyed 800 likely voters via text and online in English and Chinese. The margin of error is 3 percentage points.
It’s a rare snapshot of the race. The last publicly reported poll (opens in new tab) was conducted in September and published by The Standard earlier this year. The new memo compiles results from five polls conducted over the past year. As recently as January, Chan was in second place.
The new poll shows Chakrabarti’s rising name recognition — from just 10% a year ago to about 50% today. While Wiener and Chan still have higher name recognition, both carry higher unfavorability ratings. Wiener’s favorability has declined, likely due to backlash over his viral Gaza moment.
Chakrabarti’s polling surge isn’t surprising due to his media blitz as of late. He has spent hundreds of thousands to air TV ads — drawing criticism from opponents who accuse him of trying to buy a congressional seat.
“Saikat has spent over $2 million to be in a statistical tie with a woman who has spent a fraction of that amount,” said Julie Edwards, spokesperson for Chan. “We know voters are looking for a progressive fighter, not a corporate phony.”
In its latest survey, the campaign tested messaging and biographical descriptions. Voters responded most positively to messages about refusing money from AI companies, Big Tech, and pro-Israel lobbying groups. Among biographical traits, the most popular ones are Chakrabarti’s upbringing in an immigrant family, raising a child in San Francisco, being a homeowner, and the potential to become the city’s first Asian American member of Congress — qualities that also apply to Chan. — H.L.
GAME ON: The San Francisco Chronicle is jumping into the political newsletter game, according to a LinkedIn job posting titled “California Confidential reporter.” The daily newsletter will focus on state legislation in partnership with USLege, an artificial intelligence tool that tracks bills and transcribes meetings.
“The newsletter author will be a self-starter capable of unearthing news, reporting on daily developments, and big-picture conversations on the most urgent political topics of the day,” the post (opens in new tab) states.
“We are seeking someone with an entrepreneurial bent who is eager to launch a new project that they will own. This person should be passionate about how laws are made in California and how the process plays out throughout the state.”
California Confidential will enter a crowded field. In addition to Power Play, it’ll go toe-to-toe with Politico’s California Playbook and CalMatters’ WhatMatters. It doesn’t appear the newspaper has swiftly identified a candidate for the job. LinkedIn shows it was reposted two weeks ago.
The Chronicle’s Editor-in-Chief, Emilio Garcia-Ruiz, declined an interview request. — G.G.