The decline offers cautious optimism, but the state still faces the nation’s largest unhoused population and a political debate over its root causes.
California has recorded its first statewide decline in homelessness in 15 years, a milestone that state officials say reflects expanded investments in housing and behavioral health services. The state remains home to the largest unhoused population in the United States, and researchers say the underlying drivers of the crisis, especially the cost of housing, remain largely unchanged.
More than 187,000 people were experiencing homelessness in California as of January 2024, according to the National Alliance to End Homelessness. That represents roughly one-quarter of all unhoused people in the United States, with about 74% living unsheltered, the highest rate in the nation.
The crisis is concentrated in urban regions. Los Angeles County alone accounts for more than 40% of the state’s unhoused population, with large numbers also in the Bay Area.
State officials say new investments in behavioral health services are improving access to treatment. The effort is tied in part to a voter-approved behavioral health bond championed by Gavin Newsom. “In just two years, California has fully allocated our behavioral health bond and exceeded statewide capacity goals, building treatment access closer to home in the communities with the greatest unmet needs,” said Michelle Baass, director of the Department of Health Care Services. “From urgent care and crisis stabilization to residential treatment and peer respite, these projects at hundreds of facilities establish capacity for the next three decades.”
Housing Costs Remain a Key Driver
While mental health and addiction treatment are part of the state’s strategy, many researchers say the primary driver of homelessness in California is the cost of housing. The state faces a severe shortage of affordable homes, with only about 35 affordable units available for every 100 extremely low-income households, according to the California Budget & Policy Center.
Many people lose housing after relatively common financial disruptions such as job loss, medical bills, or eviction. About 90% of people experiencing homelessness in California lost their last housing within the state, challenging the perception that homelessness results primarily from migration. The average length of homelessness in California is about 22 months.
Community-based housing services highlight the ongoing need for targeted support alongside broader policy solutions. Programs like Plumeria House in Anaheim provide transitional shelter and wraparound services for families with children who have chronic illnesses or disabilities. Staff assist families with case management, medical access, counseling, tutoring, and housing navigation, helping them move toward stable housing. While these services are vital, Plumeria House currently serves only six families at a time, underscoring the urgent need to expand similar programs across the state to support California’s most vulnerable residents.
A Political Debate Over Causes
The 2026 governor’s race has made the causes of homelessness a central issue, with candidates offering sharply different interpretations. The official field of 10 candidates includes Democrats Xavier Becerra, Matt Mahan, Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell, Tony Thurmond, Antonio Villaraigosa, Tom Steyer, and Betty Yee, as well as Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco.
“More than 80% of unhoused people struggle with mental health or addiction,” Hilton said, criticizing California’s “Housing First” policy and advocating for expanded treatment and stricter enforcement.
Republican candidate Steve Hilton frames homelessness primarily as a mental health and addiction crisis. Republican Chad Bianco supports similar treatment-focused and public safety measures.
“I will declare a housing emergency on day one to surge supply and drive down costs for Californians,” said Eric Swalwell, emphasizing the state’s housing affordability crisis.
Former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter has highlighted the high cost of living for working families, while former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa stated, “Housing affordability is the root of California’s homelessness crisis.”
Other Democratic contenders — Matt Mahan, Tony Thurmond, Tom Steyer, Xavier Becerra, and Betty Yee — support a mix of expanding housing supply, social services, and economic supports to address both the causes and consequences of homelessness.
The contrast reflects a broader policy debate: Is homelessness primarily a behavioral health issue, or is it mainly driven by housing shortages and affordability challenges?
Unexpected Dynamics: GOP Advantage in a Crowded Field
The unusually large Democratic field — eight Democrats versus two Republicans — has prompted political calculations that could influence how homelessness policy debates play out. With the top two finishers in California’s top-two primary system advancing to the general election regardless of party, a divided Democratic vote could give Republicans an unexpected edge.
As reported by SW Newsmagazine, political analysts note that having eight Democrats splitting voter support could allow Hilton and Bianco to finish as the top two vote getters in June, even in a traditionally Democratic state. Observers say this could shift the general election debate over homelessness and housing policy into broader party strategy and turnout concerns.
Who Is Experiencing Homelessness
The demographics reveal stark disparities. Black Californians are significantly overrepresented, making up roughly 40% of the unhoused population. Families are also affected: more than 25,000 people in families with children experienced homelessness in 2024. Additionally, nearly 47% of unhoused adults are 50 or older, increasing demand for healthcare and support services.
Early Progress, Long-Term Challenge
The first statewide decline in homelessness suggests that sustained investments in housing, prevention programs, and behavioral health services may be starting to pay off. However, experts caution that a single year of improvement does not resolve the crisis. Without dramatically expanding affordable housing and addressing the economic pressures pushing people into homelessness, the state may struggle to sustain progress.
For now, the decline marks a rare moment of cautious optimism in one of California’s most visible and persistent social crises.
Main photo, courtesy of the Plumeria House.
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